DOI: 10.5592/CO/HG.2026.10
Autori: IRINA STIPANOVIĆ , MARTINA PEKČEC , LOU LERREN CURACHA , MARIO BAČIĆ , NICOLA ROSSI2 , MEHO SAŠA KOVAČEVIĆ
Sažetak:
This study examines flash-flood risks in steep catchments draining from Medvednica Mountain into Zagreb, focusing on three retention systems: Črnomerec, Pusti dol, and Jazbina. The analysis explores cascading multi-hazard interactions, where earthquake-induced stress and extreme precipitation may compromise retention performance, potentially triggering dam failure and downstream urban flooding. Scenarios are structured using hazard intensity levels, infrastructure fragility, and consequence indicators, enabling integration into crisismanagement platforms. The CRISAFE project models these interactions using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs), a probabilistic framework that links initiating hazards to infrastructure response, flood propagation, and downstream impacts through conditional relationships, while accounting for uncertainty propagation. The methodology supports riskinformed decision-making for urban resilience and emergency planning.