DOI: 10.5592/CO/HG.2026.39
HYDRAULIC AND SEISMIC VULNERABILITY OF EARTHEN FLOOD PROTECTION STRUCTURES: A PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT
Autori: MEHO SAŠA KOVAČEVIĆ , MARIO BAČIĆ
Sažetak: Flood protection systems play a critical role in reducing flood risk in many regions worldwide; however, their reliability may be compromised by extreme environmental conditions. Earthen flood protection structures such as levees, riverbanks and retention dams are particularly sensitive to hydraulic and seismic loading, which may significantly affect their stability. This paper presents a probabilistic vulnerability assessment of earthen flood protection structures exposed to hydraulic and seismic hazards. The study builds upon the results of three projects funded through the Union Civil Protection Mechanism, addressing different types of flood protection infrastructure. Hazard quantification was performed using downscaled climate scenarios, extreme rainfall analysis, hydraulic modelling and earthquake scenario simulations. These hazard scenarios were combined with detailed geometric and geotechnical characterization of the investigated structures to develop numerical probabilistic stability analyses. The results demonstrate that the governing hazard varies depending on the type of structure and local conditions. The probabilistic analyses enabled the development of fragility curves describing the relationship between hazard intensity and failure probability. The presented methodology provides a quantitative basis for vulnerability assessment of flood protection infrastructure and supports further risk analysis and decision-making in civil protection and infrastructure management.